Futures, as you can see, have been all over the place but over-all are DOWN.
After dropping to 797 at the close, the futures yesterday continued to drop down to the low 780s, rallied several times overnight back up to 790 - and now, as of 8:30am, sit at 783 after a bad ADP jobs report. I think it's safe to say that the 2d Quarter 2009 will open on the down side. A move below the 780 support/resistance line will be the final nail in the coffin on the late March rally - although we've already started making money on the downside. Go FAZ! Go SKF!
The 3-Day high to watch for a trend change back to the upside is still at 832 - what do you think the odds are that that will happen??
Yesterday was, I think, a last gasp for the bulls. The S&P hit strong resistance at 810 - the low side of the Monday's downward gap at the open. Remember that the natural tendency is for gaps to be filled - the fact that the index yesterday managed to get justp to the edge of the gap but was unable to get up the strength to fill it - that's just a bit bearish, no?
S&P 500 15 min chart - 4 days
Additionally, the 50ma is right at 790 - this will mark yet another occasion where the S&P managed to get above the 50 briefly and couldn't hold it. Nothing new here.
So all of the weight seems to be on the side of failure - the S&P gets the strength to rise, but can't follow through and hold it. So the natural direction is further down.
Make sure you take advantage of this by getting in on an inverse ETF - since the financials lead the market up - and lead the market down - the ETFs to be in are FAZ and SKF.
If we go down and retest the 666 low, that should easily be a 50-100% pickup for the old portfolio - just stay steady, follow the trend, and don't jump around.
Good luck!