I happened to have CNBC on the teevee yesterday morning and they had some lightweight talking head on crowing about how resilient the bull market is. "Just 48 hours ago the S&P was way down in the 880s - now it's in the 920s and we're probably going to hit a new 2009 high today, etc., etc.". Dude.... hate to tell you, but we're probably going to be back down in the 880s again today. So much for that. Idiot....
(UPDATE: - yes, at 9:15 ET, the S&P futures *are* back in the 880s... sorry dude - are you going to go back on CNBC today and say "Never mind"?)
I thought that we would retest 930 and either break through (to retest the 2009 high of 944) or fall back. We made it to 925 - and then fell back. Does that count? Usually I consider support/resistance areas a range rather than an exact point. 925 is like 0.5% away from 930 - generally that is good enough for me.
Here's a chart:
S&P 500 - 15 Minute Chart - 10 Days
We filled the gap that formed between the end of the day on the 8th (the day we hit 930) and the open on the 11th where we dropped back. But filling the gap yesterday morning basically took all of the strength out of the market - look at how low the level of the MACD-H bump was - and then look at how the bulls failed to retain control and gave up momentum to the bears. That's kind of what happens at resistance, no? So I count 925 as testing 930 and FAILing.
So the place to watch right now is the 880 area itself - where we dropped to last Friday the 15th. For the time being, consider us to be in tight range - 930 on top - 880 on the bottom. Which way we go from there will tell us how "resilient" the market is.
We've failed trying to get through that top - now we are quickly approaching the bottom of the range again and the bears seem to have momentum. Enough to get through?
Good luck.