The market closed right on the brink of the new foray into the Valley of Death at S&P 1007 yesterday. Futures are up in the overnight, portending a higher open, and setting up a new assault on the Fibonacci 38.2 Retracement line of 1014. If 1014 holds, the bears will be in charge. If 1014 falls, the bulls will take over. Simple as that.
S&P 500 - 30 Minute Chart - 20 Days
Here's a 20 day chart with the Valley of Death ("where uptrends go to die") outlined in red. It corresponds to 1007 - the November rebound high - and 1014 - the Fib 38.2 Retracement.
The S&P has made 2 previous trips into the Valley of Death - spiking intraday at 1018 for the 2009 high on the first try before falling back, and then being turned back 3 separate times on the second try. Gotta give the bulls credit for perseverence, but with so many indicators on the daily and longer range charts favoring the bears, it really does seem like an uphill battle for the bulls. Not impossible - nothing is ever a definite or a sure thing in the world of the markets, but, still, there's probabilities... If the S&P breaks through and then closes above 1014, it will be hard to argue against the bulls regardless of the indicators.
2 big exogenous events today - a big Bernanke speech - theoretically the last of his tenure unless Obama re-appoints him. And today is an "options expiration" day which often, but not always, means a day of high volatility. So it really is the kind of day where prices can double and the scores can really change.
That's all I got - and I don't think we need any more. All eyes on 1014.
Good luck!
UPDATE: At 10 am, the S&P has taken out the 2009 high of 1018 - watch and see if it can hold on until the close